Daily Forecast Skill of Multi-Center Grand Ensemble

A Multi-UAV Targeting Algorithm for Ensemble Forecast Improvement

This paper presents an algorithm for targeting a team of UAVs as sensor platforms to ensure the improvement in the forecast at a separate verification time and location within the ensemble forecast framework. The information gain at the verification time/space is used as a metric of the forecast uncertainty reduction, and a computationally efficient backward selection method forms the backbone ...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean...

Predictability and Ensemble-Forecast Skill Enhancement Based on the Probability Density Function Estimation

I wish to address development of theoretical framework by improving and combining currently existing methodologies and techniques. I also wish to adapt new approaches based on dynamical systems theories that have not been used to enhance predictability in the past. My overall approach will involve Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions of the probablity density funtion evolution, identification a...

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill